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The Player Line / The definitions
The sentence that decides whether the bet is settled
What "to play" means, and why it decides the bet
A single-player bet has two parts: what the player does, and whether he is deemed to have participated. The first is the projection; the second is a sentence. Across the samples those two parts return almost as many bets to their owners as they settle, and the sentence does all of the returning.
Desk spec
- definitions
- 4
- sample
- 400 markets
- stand, strictest
- 308
- stand, loosest
- 369
the projectionWhat a player is expected to do: an expected-minutes figure multiplied by a per-90 rate. The sample player is expected to play 78.0 minutes at 1.40 shots on target per 90, so the model expects 1.21 of them rather than the 1.40 a full match would imply.
the participation definitionWhat the operator's rules mean by "to play". Across 400 sampled single-player markets the same bets stand 308 times under "named in the starting XI" and 369 times under "takes the field", so the definition decides whether the bet is settled at all.
the confirmationThe source that counts the stat after the match and the audit behind it. 14 of 1,200 sampled markets were corrected after first publication, 5 of them more than an hour later, and 3 after the payout had already been made.
Direct answer"To play" is a definition, not an observation. The sample's 400 single-player markets stand 308 times under "named in the starting XI" and 369 times under "takes the field at all" - so between 92 and 103 of the same bets are returned rather than settled. The definition decides the bet before the player's performance is even counted.
Four definitions a rulebook may use
The strictest of the four common definitions is "named in the starting XI", which fails a player who comes on from the bench and then does everything the bet asked for. The loosest is "takes the field at all", which counts a minute of stoppage time. Between them sit "plays at least 60 minutes" and "completes the match", and the same market can be written under any of the four without the price changing on the screen.
Sample F shows how inconsistent the rulebooks are. Of 36 sampled rule pages, only 14 define participation at all, and only 9 name the data provider whose count settles the market. That means a reader is usually taking a bet whose most fragile part - the definition that returns it - is not on the page they read it on.
What the samples show
Sample B - the same 400 markets under four definitions, and the same book of 8,000
| Definition | Stand (400) | Void (400) | Void in a book of 8,000 |
|---|
| Named in the starting XI | 308 (77.0%) | 92 (23.0%) | 1,840 |
| Takes the field at all | 369 (92.25%) | 31 (7.75%) | 620 |
| Plays at least 60 minutes | 331 (82.75%) | 69 (17.25%) | 1,380 |
| Completes the match | 297 (74.25%) | 103 (25.75%) | 2,060 |
| The swing between the strictest and the loosest | 297 to 369 | 92 to 103 | 1,440 bets |
sample B - the definition, scaled to a real book
the sample has 400 markets; a month has 8,000
scale factor = 8,000 / 400 = 20
"named in the starting XI": 92 void x 20 = 1,840 returned (23.0%)
"takes the field": 31 void x 20 = 620 returned (7.75%)
"plays 60 minutes": 69 void x 20 = 1,380 returned (17.25%)
"completes the match": 103 void x 20 = 2,060 returned (25.75%)
the same 8,000 performances are returned 620 times under one sentence
and 2,060 times under another, a difference of 1,440 bets.
at a mean stake of 9.40, that wording is worth 13,536.00 of stake
returned differently in a single month.
sample F - how often the rule is even written
rule pages sampled = 36
pages that settle a player market = 22 -> 22 / 36 = 61.1%
pages that define "to play" = 14 -> 14 / 36 = 38.9%
pages that name the data provider = 9 -> 9 / 36 = 25.0%
pages that state the void rule = 12 -> 12 / 36 = 33.3%
pages that state all six rules = 1 -> 1 / 36 = 2.8%
so in most markets, the reader can find the price and the line
but not the sentence that decides whether the bet is settled.
the one page that states all six is the exception, not the rule.
Five things to find before you take a bet on a person
- The definition of "to play" the market settles on, in the rules rather than in the marketing copy.
- Whether a substitute appearance counts, and whether a start that ends before sixty minutes still counts.
- Whether the rule is the same for every single-player market or set per market on its own page.
- Whether the operator may amend the definition between your bet and the settlement.
- Whether the returned stake is returned whole, or as a free bet, or as a credit with a condition.
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