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The Player Line / Myths
Six beliefs about a market on one person, checked

Six beliefs about single-player markets, checked

A market on one person attracts confident beliefs, most of them about the player and few of them about the definition, the provider or the line. Each of the six below is checked against the desk’s samples rather than against opinion.

Desk spec
beliefs
6
verdicts
4 false
partly
1
true
1
the projectionWhat a player is expected to do: an expected-minutes figure multiplied by a per-90 rate. The sample player is expected to play 78.0 minutes at 1.40 shots on target per 90, so the model expects 1.21 of them rather than the 1.40 a full match would imply.
the participation definitionWhat the operator's rules mean by "to play". Across 400 sampled single-player markets the same bets stand 308 times under "named in the starting XI" and 369 times under "takes the field", so the definition decides whether the bet is settled at all.
the confirmationThe source that counts the stat after the match and the audit behind it. 14 of 1,200 sampled markets were corrected after first publication, 5 of them more than an hour later, and 3 after the payout had already been made.
Direct answer

Of six common beliefs about a market on one player, four are false, one is partly true and one is true. The false ones are all versions of the same error - treating the price as a view about the player when the samples show it is a projection of minutes, settled against a definition of "to play".

false A market on a player is priced from the player's quality.

It is priced from expected minutes multiplied by a per-90 rate. The sample player's rate of 1.40 per 90 is unchanged by his reputation; the price changes from 2.45 to 3.63 when the minutes estimate moves from 90 to 66, a swing four times larger than the rate would produce.

false A single-player bet is settled from the highlights.

It is settled from a named provider's published count, which can be corrected after the match. 14 of 1,200 sampled markets were corrected after first publication, 5 more than an hour later and 3 after the payout had been made.

false If a bet voids, the money comes straight back.

A void is a return, but not always as cash and not always promptly. 29.0% of the sample's voids resolve during the match rather than at the team sheet, and a return made as a credit with a condition is worth less than the stake it replaced.

false The star player is always priced too short.

The price follows the projection, and the projection for a rotated player is long, not short: a 66-minute estimate prices the same market at 3.63 against 2.93 for the central estimate. Reputation is not in the arithmetic at all.

partly Two providers counting the same shot will usually agree.

They agree on almost everything, and the samples put the disagreement at 6 of 1,200 markets - 0.5%. But the 0.5% is the exposure that no rule can settle from the event, and only 9 of 36 rule pages name which provider's count stands, so the belief is right about the frequency and wrong about the risk.

true A bet on a player can be returned without the player doing anything wrong.

This is the one belief the samples confirm. Between 92 and 103 of the sample's 400 markets, 23.0% to 25.75%, are returned by the participation definition, and 620 to 2,060 of the month's 8,000 bets, on the wording of a sentence rather than on anything the player did.

the myths, in one calculation belief 1: the projection, not the player's quality -> 2.45 to 3.63 on minutes alone belief 2: settled from a count, corrected 14 of 1,200 = 1.17% belief 3: 29.0% of voids resolve during the match, not at the team sheet belief 4: the rotated player's estimate is long, 3.63 against 2.93 belief 5: disagreement is rare, 0.5%, but named in only 9 of 36 pages belief 6: returned by the definition in 23.0% to 25.75% of cases four false, one partly, one true: the false ones all read the price as a view about the player, and the samples show it is a projection settled against a sentence.
Five ways to check a belief about a player market
  • Ask whether the claim is about the player's quality or about his expected minutes.
  • Ask which sentence in the rules decides whether the bet is settled at all.
  • Ask which provider's count stands, and whether a correction after payout is reversed.
  • Ask what a void returns as, and when, rather than whether it returns.
  • Ask whether the belief would survive the definition being changed by one word.

Read next

The projectionThe two numbers behind the priceThe definitionsThe sentence most beliefs ignoreThe voidWhat a return is really worthQuestionsThe questions, in full