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The Player Line / Questions
The questions a market on one person raises

Single-player markets: the questions, in full

These are the questions the desk is built to answer, each from the invented samples rather than from a real operator. They cover the projection, the definition, the provider, the ceiling and the money, in the order a reader meets them.

Desk spec
questions
12
samples
10
topic
one player
answer
from the samples
the projectionWhat a player is expected to do: an expected-minutes figure multiplied by a per-90 rate. The sample player is expected to play 78.0 minutes at 1.40 shots on target per 90, so the model expects 1.21 of them rather than the 1.40 a full match would imply.
the participation definitionWhat the operator's rules mean by "to play". Across 400 sampled single-player markets the same bets stand 308 times under "named in the starting XI" and 369 times under "takes the field", so the definition decides whether the bet is settled at all.
the confirmationThe source that counts the stat after the match and the audit behind it. 14 of 1,200 sampled markets were corrected after first publication, 5 of them more than an hour later, and 3 after the payout had already been made.
Direct answer

A market on one player is priced from a projection of minutes and a per-90 rate, its line is set at a whole number, and it is settled against a definition of "to play" that decides whether the bet is settled at all. The sample player is priced 2.93 fair and 2.70 offered, and 620 of a month's 8,000 bets are returned by the definition.

The questions a reader asks first

What does "to play" mean in a player market?
Why is the price not just about the player?
Who counts a shot on target?
When does a single-player bet void?
Why is the maximum stake so small?
What happens if two providers disagree?
Five things to establish first
  • The definition of "to play" the market settles on, in the rules rather than the summary.
  • The expected minutes behind the line, not only the rate.
  • The named provider whose count settles the market.
  • Whether the void returns cash or a credit, and when.
  • The single-player maximum stake and the payout ceiling, separately.

Read next

The single subjectWhat a player market isThe definitionsWhat "to play" meansThe confirmationWho counts the statThe voidWhat a return is worth

The questions, in full

q01

What does "to play" mean in a single-player market?

It means whatever the operator’s rules define it as, and the four common definitions give different answers. "Named in the starting XI" fails a substitute who does everything the bet asked; "takes the field at all" counts a minute of stoppage time. Across 400 sampled markets 308 stand under the strictest and 369 under the loosest, so the definition decides 92 to 103 bets before the player does.

q02

Why is a single-player price not simply about the player?

Because it is a projection: expected minutes multiplied by a per-90 rate and divided by ninety. The sample player is expected to play 78.0 minutes at 1.40 shots on target per 90, so the model expects 1.21 and the fair price is 2.93. Move the minutes to a full 90 and the same player prices at 2.45; move them to 66 and the price is 3.63.

q03

How is the line set if the model expects 1.21?

The line has to be a whole number of the stat, so a model expecting 1.21 offers 1.5 and the bet is "two or more". At a mean of 1.21 the chance of two or more is 34.10%, which prices at 2.93. The line is a second decision on top of the projection: the same model offers 1.43 at the 0.5 line and 8.16 at the 2.5 line.

q04

Who counts the stat the bet settles on?

A data provider, named in the rules. The samples put the correction rate at 14 of 1,200 settled markets, 1.17%, with 5 corrected more than an hour later and 3 after the payout had been made. Six of the 14 were a shot that hit the woodwork, which one provider counts as on target and another does not.

q05

When does a single-player bet void?

When the participation definition fails: the player is not named in the starting XI, does not take the field, or is withdrawn before the definition’s minimum, depending on the wording. In the sample month 620 of 8,000 bets were returned under "takes the field" and 1,840 under "named in the starting XI", a swing of 1,220 bets on one sentence.

q06

What is a voided bet worth when it is returned?

It depends on the form and the timing of the return. A stake returned as cash restores the position; a credit with a wagering condition, an expiry or a market restriction is worth less than the stake it replaced. The samples record 71.0% of voids resolving at the team sheet and 29.0% during the match, when the return arrives after the event.

q07

Why is the maximum stake on one player lower than on the team?

Because a single-player market is thin: it is often one-sided, so the operator holds the whole position rather than netting it against other takers. The sample’s maximum is 800.00 on one player against 5,000.00 on the team market, 16.0% as much, and a 12,000.00 payout ceiling caps the stake at 4,444.44 at a price of 2.70.

q08

What happens when two providers count the same shot differently?

The market does not split the stake, because there is no half a shot on target: it settles on the provider the rule names. The samples put the disagreement at 6 of 1,200 markets, 0.5%, all of them a woodwork shot. Only 9 of 36 rule pages name a provider, so in most rulebooks there is no named count to appeal to.

q09

Is a player market independent of the team market?

No. The sample player scores in 30.0% of the matches his team wins, 10.0% of its draws and 5.0% of its losses, so his overall 21.25% chance of scoring is an average over outcomes the team market prices at the same time, and the fair price of the player scoring is 4.71. The two markets move together, and a reader taking one is also taking a view about the other.

q10

How long does settlement take?

In the samples, a median of 22 minutes from the final whistle, with 68.0% settled inside 30 minutes and a 90th percentile of 3 h 05 m. The tail is long because contested stats are re-checked: a market that needed a provider correction waited a median of 2 h 10 m beyond the whistle, about 5.9 times the ordinary lag.

q11

Does the operator publish the expected minutes behind the line?

Most of the sampled rule pages do not. They publish the price and the line, which every page states, but only 14 of 36 define "to play", 9 name the provider and 6 state the lower limit. Only 1 of the 36 states all six sentences, so a reader can usually check the price and not the terms that decide the bet.

q12

What does a month of single-player markets look like in money?

The sample month is 8,000 bets at a mean stake of 9.40, a turnover of 75,200.00. 7,380 settle and 620 void, returning 5,828.00; 2,517 of the settled bets clear the line and 63,881.46 is paid, leaving 5,490.54 retained - 7.92% of settled stakes, or 65,886.48 over twelve such months. Every figure is illustrative.