The Player Line / The arithmetic
One month of single-player markets, carried through to money
One month of single-player bets, in money
The month is where the projection, the definition and the ceiling meet. The same 8,000 bets turn over 75,200.00, return 5,828.00 as voids, settle 7,380 at the projection’s price, and leave the operator 5,490.54 - a figure that is a margin on a price, not a statement about any player.
Desk spec
- bets
- 8,000
- turnover
- 75,200.00
- retained
- 5,490.54
- a year
- 65,886.48
the projectionWhat a player is expected to do: an expected-minutes figure multiplied by a per-90 rate. The sample player is expected to play 78.0 minutes at 1.40 shots on target per 90, so the model expects 1.21 of them rather than the 1.40 a full match would imply.
the participation definitionWhat the operator's rules mean by "to play". Across 400 sampled single-player markets the same bets stand 308 times under "named in the starting XI" and 369 times under "takes the field", so the definition decides whether the bet is settled at all.
the confirmationThe source that counts the stat after the match and the audit behind it. 14 of 1,200 sampled markets were corrected after first publication, 5 of them more than an hour later, and 3 after the payout had already been made.
Direct answerIn the sample month 8,000 single-player bets turned over 75,200.00 at a mean stake of 9.40. 7,380 settled (92.25%) and 620 were void (7.75%), returning 5,828.00; of the settled bets 2,517 cleared the line (34.10%) and 63,881.46 was paid, leaving 5,490.54 retained - 7.92% of settled stakes, or 65,886.48 a year.
Where the money goes
The month has three destinations, and the smallest of them is the operator's. Most of the turnover - 69,372.00 - is staked on bets that settle; the rest, 5,828.00, is returned as voids because the player did not meet the participation definition. Of the settled stakes, 63,881.46 is paid out on the 2,517 bets that cleared the line, and the difference, 5,490.54, is what the operator's price retained. The retained figure is the 2.94 points of margin between the fair price 2.93 and the offered 2.70, applied to a month of staking.
The annual figure is not a forecast and not a claim: it is the monthly retention multiplied by twelve, shown to make the scale of a 7.92% margin on a 75,200.00 month concrete. Nothing in it says the month will repeat, and the only input that would change it materially is the participation definition, which is why the desk keeps returning to that sentence.
What the samples show
Sample G - the month of 8,000 single-player bets, in money
| Line | Bets | Stake | Paid or returned |
|---|
| Void - the player did not meet the definition | 620 | 5,828.00 | 5,828.00 returned |
| Settled - the stat did not reach the line | 4,863 | 45,712.20 | 0.00 |
| Settled - the stat reached the line | 2,517 | 23,659.80 | 63,881.46 |
| The month, netted | 8,000 | 75,200.00 | retained 5,490.54 |
sample G - the month, in full
bets = 8,000
mean stake = 9.40
turnover = 8,000 x 9.40 = 75,200.00
void bets = 620 -> 620 x 9.40 = 5,828.00 returned
settled bets = 7,380 -> 7,380 x 9.40 = 69,372.00 staked
settled that cleared = 7,380 x 0.3410 = 2,517
paid = 2,517 x 9.40 x 2.70 = 63,881.46
retained = 69,372.00 - 63,881.46 = 5,490.54
margin on settled stakes = 5,490.54 / 69,372.00 = 7.92%.
sample G - the same month under a stricter definition
under "named in the starting XI", 1,840 of the 8,000 return instead of 620:
void stakes = 1,840 x 9.40 = 17,296.00 returned
settled stakes = 6,160 x 9.40 = 57,904.00
the cleared share is unchanged at 34.10%, so cleared = 6,160 x 0.3410 = 2,101
paid = 2,101 x 9.40 x 2.70 = 53,323.38
retained = 57,904.00 - 53,323.38 = 4,580.62
so the same performances, priced the same way, retain 909.92 less
in the month simply because 1,220 more bets were returned:
16.6% of the month's margin, moved by a sentence.
sample A - the margin is a price, not a player
fair price 2.93 / offered 2.70
implied chance of the fair price = 34.10%
implied chance of the offered price = 37.04%
the 2.94-point gap is the price's own margin, applied to every settled bet:
return per 1.00 staked = 0.3410 x 2.70 = 0.9207
retained per 1.00 staked = 0.0793 = 7.93%
the retained 5,490.54 above is that 0.0793 applied to 69,372.00 of
settled stakes, rounded: the month is the price, repeated 7,380 times.
nothing in the figure is a view about any real player.
75,200.00turnover in the month
620bets void under the definition
2,517bets that cleared the line
7.92%retained on settled stakes
65,886.48the month, twelve times
1,220extra voids under a stricter rule
Five things the month shows
- That the operator's retained share is a margin on the price, not a result about any player.
- That the participation definition moves more of the month than the projection does.
- That a void is a returned stake, not a loss, and it still costs the reader the use of the money.
- That the cleared share, 34.10%, is fixed by the projection and the line together.
- That the annual figure is the monthly retention multiplied by twelve, a scale not a forecast.
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